Martingale System Sports Betting
Introduction
Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.
Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss. Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to. A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit.To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. Oscar's Grind betting system. Labouchere betting system. Fibonacci betting system. Martingale betting system. D'Alembert betting system. Keefer roulette system. Betting Systems and the House Edge, an article by Ph.D. Mathematician Eliot Jacobson debunking betting systems. Betting Systems, an article by Michael Bluejay of VegasClick. 4 Proven Betting Systems That Work. I remember when I first started searching for a proven betting system googling the term “ betting systems.” There was all sorts of progressive staking systems, martingale systems, stop at a winner systems, progressive laying systems.
Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.
Rules
The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.
- The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
- The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
- The player makes a one-unit bet.
- If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
- Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
- Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
- Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
- The player bets.
- Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.
*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.
Simulation Results
To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.
The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.
Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.17% | 95.65% | 97.69% | 98.77% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.736 | 5.697 | 6.230 | 6.646 | 7.067 |
| Average units bet | 6.626 | 10.609 | 14.557 | 19.609 | 28.650 |
| Expected win per session | -0.082 | -0.131 | -0.180 | -0.242 | -0.354 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.234% | 1.235% | 1.236% | 1.235% | 1.235% |
The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.
Craps Simulation — Pass Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.63% | 97.67% | 98.76% | 99.45% |
| Average number of bets | 4.289 | 5.161 | 5.645 | 6.024 | 6.409 |
| Average units bet | 6.001 | 9.616 | 13.205 | 17.804 | 26.051 |
| Expected win per session | -0.085 | -0.136 | -0.187 | -0.252 | -0.368 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.413% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.413% |
The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.
Craps Simulation — Don't Pass
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.64% | 97.68% | 98.76% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.410 | 5.307 | 5.805 | 6.193 | 6.589 |
| Average units bet | 6.171 | 9.887 | 13.574 | 18.296 | 26.768 |
| Expected win per session | -0.084 | -0.135 | -0.185 | -0.250 | -0.365 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.
Roulette Simulation — Single Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 89.40% | 95.11% | 97.29% | 98.49% | 99.28% |
| Average number of bets | 4.381 | 5.327 | 5.871 | 6.314 | 6.789 |
| Average units bet | 6.156 | 10.059 | 14.074 | 19.418 | 29.545 |
| Expected win per session | -0.166 | -0.272 | -0.380 | -0.525 | -0.799 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.
Roulette Simulation — Double Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 87.81% | 93.93% | 96.39% | 97.81% | 98.81% |
| Average number of bets | 4.567 | 5.670 | 6.350 | 6.944 | 7.646 |
| Average units bet | 6.468 | 10.982 | 15.945 | 23.026 | 37.824 |
| Expected win per session | -0.340 | -0.578 | -0.839 | -1.212 | -1.991 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 5.263% | 5.264% | 5.262% | 5.264% | 5.264% |
Video
Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
External Links
Martingale System Sports Betting App
Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.
Martingale System Sports Betting Stocks
Written by: Michael Shackleford